Market Recap – May 15th, 2025
The Philosopher Investor
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change." – Charles Darwin
🧭 Market Snapshot
Overall Price Context & Current Action: Alright, looking at this live May 15th chart, SPY is currently flirting around 590.05. After yesterday's (May 14th) close around 587.27, today has seen a bit of a push, but it's bumping its head right around that 590.00 mark we talked about. The candle is still painting itself, so this is a "watch this space" situation! It's trying to build on the gains from earlier in the week but seems hesitant.
Key Levels & Indicator Insights (from this new, live chart!):
Support: The green line from the prior day's low (around 585.00-ish from the May 14th candle on this chart) is the first safety net. Below that, the blue line (previous value area high/POC from a bit further back, looks like around 563.00 based on the new chart's left-side profile) is way down.
Resistance: That 590.00 level is the immediate party crasher. If it can clear that decisively today, the recent high around 592.00-593.00 (from the last couple of candles) is the next hurdle before we can even whisper about 600.00.
Volume: Today's volume (the last, incomplete bar) is still building, but so far, it doesn't look like a blockbuster turnout. We'll need to see how it shapes up by the closing bell.
Bullish Scenario (What the bulls are dreaming about right now): Bulls want to see today's candle close strong above 590.00, ideally pushing towards 592.00-593.00 with some oomph (read: more volume than we're seeing currently). That would say, "Yesterday's hesitation is over, we're going up!"
Bearish Scenario (What the bears are hoping for as we speak): Bears would love to see this 590.00 level act like a brick wall, pushing price back down. A close below yesterday's low (around 585.00) would have them grinning, thinking this little rally is running out of steam.
Current Bias/Decision Point (As of right now, May 15th, mid-market!): It's a tug-of-war around 590.00! The market is trying to decide if it wants to follow through on the recent upward momentum or if today's news/hesitation is enough to stall the engines. This is a classic decision point. A strong close above 590.00 today would be bullish; a rejection and close back towards the mid-580s would be a win for the bears. Keep your popcorn handy, folks, the day ain't over yet!
The VIX curve is still in "contango cool" mode, meaning folks are generally betting on calmer seas now than later. Today's front-month (May) is lounging around 18.480 – a tiny bit jumpier than yesterday's 18.150. The party peaks a bit earlier and higher now, hitting 20.520 in October (yesterday was a November high). The far end of the curve still has that "meh, let's see" flatness, with December at 20.400 and a hint of backwardation.
The takeaway? The market's still feeling pretty good about the short term, much like yesterday. That slight nudge up in the front month and the earlier peak suggest maybe a fraction more alertness to present dangers, but overall, it's still a "cautiously optimistic" vibe, not yet time to sound the alarm bells. The long-term outlook remains a bit more reserved.
🔥 Trade Ideas (daily charts)
1/ UGP
UGP is a big Brazilian company dealing in fuel distribution and chemicals, and word on the street is they just announced a slick new efficiency program expected to boost profits.
Right now, UGP is hanging out around $3.10, which is where a lot of shares have changed hands (that's the POC). If it dips, it should find some friends around $2.90 - $2.95 (that's our support). To go higher, it needs to punch through $3.15, and then clear the $3.20 - $3.25 zone. The good news? More folks were buying on its last green day.
So, if UGP closes strong above $3.15 - $3.20, that could be a green light. Maybe think about jumping in around $3.22, but if it drops below $2.88, it's probably best to step aside.
2/ PLNT
PLNT runs those "Judgement Free Zone" gyms all over, and they've just reported a jump in new memberships after a fresh marketing blitz.
PLNT is currently flexing around $97.97, sitting comfortably above $95.10 where lots of trading action happened (the POC). If it needs a breather, the $93.60 to $95.10 area should offer some support. The next challenge is breaking above $99.10 and then the big $100.00 mark, with $102.00 being the recent high score to beat. Buyers definitely showed up on its last good day.
If PLNT can power through that $99.10 - $100.00 ceiling with a solid daily close, that's our cue. An entry around $100.10 could be the play, with a safety net (stop-loss) near $93.40 just in case it loses steam.
😅 Meme of the Day
